SIMULATED MATCH · REAL MODEL MATH · LIVE ON EVERY FIXTURE FOR MEMBERS
LIVE67′
MODEL v2.7 · TICK 4s · ESPN FEED
SWITZERLAND
GROUP B RUNNER-UP
1–1
COLOMBIA
GROUP K WINNER
OUTCOME PULSE · all three outcomes, last 40 model ticks
SIGNAL @ 3.20
DRAW↗
53.2%
≈ 1.88▴ 0.4
COL WIN→
28.1%
≈ 3.56▾ 0.2
SUI WIN→
18.7%
≈ 5.35▾ 0.2
FINAL GOAL MARGIN · Skellam(λ̂ₛ, λ̂ᴄ) + current 1–1
COL WIN
28.1%
DRAW
53.2%
SUI WIN
18.7%
Each bar is P(final margin) from the remaining-goals Poisson pair. The three outcome numbers are these regions, summed — the board and the distribution can never disagree.
PROBABILITY TAPE0′ – FT · model ticks⟳ RECALC
SUIDRAWCOL
MODEL WORKLOG
FINAL SCORE MATRIX · conditioned on 1–1 @ 67′ · goals to 6
Scanner recomputes each cell from remaining λ on a rolling sweep. Gold = three most likely finals. Scorelines below the live score no longer exist.
MATCH FACTORS · ESPN, context-weighted · live
MODEL ⁄ MARKETDRAW 53% model≈ 30% last market snap · 4 min stale
In-play prices move faster than this feed. The terminal reads the game — it does not beat the close.